Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1886

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.651). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1885, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1886
    18 Oct 2026, 08:53 UTC

    WWTR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWWTR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd4ab7e3de011378d

    discovery+0.18 p=0.651 n=9

    replication+0.69 p=0.042 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.651)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3db061a8c382f9952abc8bd9…
    follows b84b832902d8…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1886: WWTR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WWTR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.