Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1791

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1790, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1791
    18 Oct 2026, 06:38 UTC

    MAP7

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMAP7 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5f7978afdaa3e325

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0ed496bfd700dc5fc855a86a…
    follows 1f7189248582…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1791: MAP7 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP7 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.