Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1770

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.874). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1769, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1770
    18 Oct 2026, 06:08 UTC

    KANSL1

    microglia, braak

    predictionKANSL1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered378ab59bf699da1c

    discovery-0.06 p=0.874 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.759 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.874)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    be7ea289715a83fd6ab45bb3…
    follows 03a1f578d051…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1770: KANSL1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.08, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KANSL1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.