Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1746

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.785). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1745, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1746
    18 Oct 2026, 05:35 UTC

    TKT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTKT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredff6cfee8f55cf184

    discovery-0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.785)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9e9d0b081978fa669dc87d4a…
    follows 334bbb012c78…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1746: TKT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.06. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.64 (p 0.0039, n 18) vs -0.51 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TKT in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TKT · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured