Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17277

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.361). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17276, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17277
    01 Nov 2026, 11:12 UTC

    ANKRD37

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionANKRD37 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6e1a495df93357a2

    discovery-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.361)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9b10976831944577da764917…
    follows ccbb63a4f0bc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17277: ANKRD37 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.04, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ANKRD37 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.