Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17276

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.080). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17275, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17276
    01 Nov 2026, 11:09 UTC

    EIF1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEIF1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede1697b919ea66e74

    discovery+0.61 p=0.080 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.61, p 0.080)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ccbb63a4f0bc56356fb3d10d…
    follows ca3a2f9ab815…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17276: EIF1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.360, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EIF1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.