Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17226

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.821). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17225, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17226
    01 Nov 2026, 10:03 UTC

    MEAF6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMEAF6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb186fbfe2327a3d1

    discovery-0.09 p=0.821 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.855 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.821)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c59aad3a36c9dd1a594040ef…
    follows aecda8fd6fbc…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17226: MEAF6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.06, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MEAF6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.