Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17225

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.756). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17224, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17225
    01 Nov 2026, 10:00 UTC

    NUP58

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUP58 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda3a1834c1940debe

    discovery+0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.756)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aecda8fd6fbc4136adf896dd…
    follows 8b1ad4892440…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17225: NUP58 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUP58 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.