Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17192

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17191, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17192
    01 Nov 2026, 09:19 UTC

    TMEM125

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTMEM125 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb9cda1b2d7d94534

    discovery+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c3b362c7081fa79a464e9dbb…
    follows 7059d47e08a4…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17192: TMEM125 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM125 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.