Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17163

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17162, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17163
    01 Nov 2026, 08:38 UTC

    RAP1GDS1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAP1GDS1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4445067d8c81ac0c

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.778 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2cf1eeacea7baf35c48a28bc…
    follows 4bccc1c4b801…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17163: RAP1GDS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.19, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18) vs +0.06 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAP1GDS1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RAP1GDS1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.50 p 0.076 (needs p < 1.3e-4)