Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

RAP1GDS1

Rap1 GTPase-GDP dissociation stimulator 1

translation score 0.45, read 2026-11-01; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.60
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
1 Parkinson's papers of 410.91
pathways
Reactome
2 pathways; mostly other0.30

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 17156

Sealed predictions

  1. RAP1GDS1 in dopamine neurons, braak+0.00 (p 1.000) → +0.11 (p 0.778)receipt 17163

Swarm cases

receipt 17163: RAP1GDS1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.19, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.61 (p 0.0072, n 18) vs +0.06 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAP1GDS1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up RAP1GDS1 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.50 p 0.076 (needs p < 1.3e-4)

Receipts

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