Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17148

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17147, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17148
    01 Nov 2026, 08:18 UTC

    YPEL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionYPEL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1f221e342b7c262e

    discovery-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    237d62c986f044277822022c…
    follows d45cd8b64d1f…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 17148: YPEL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.05, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18) vs -0.07 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for YPEL1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up YPEL1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.30 p 0.286 (needs p < 1.3e-4)