Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 17035

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 17034, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 17035
    01 Nov 2026, 05:49 UTC

    VWCE

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionVWCE in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd47be8b051215f84

    discovery-0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.773 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    560221183ae187e9f7be7e6b…
    follows f4f20d76bc84…

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The swarm's case

receipt 17035: VWCE in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.10, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for VWCE in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.