Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16963

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.445). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16962, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16963
    01 Nov 2026, 04:11 UTC

    PCK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPCK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddddead59971d24b9

    discovery-0.29 p=0.445 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.740 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.445)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    65ded5a75747d145b1b762ca…
    follows 1d4b59085a21…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16963: PCK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.12, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCK2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.