Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16960

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.0093; held-out -0.25 p 0.520). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16959, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16960
    01 Nov 2026, 04:09 UTC

    SPECC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPECC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede59604d7f748ebca

    discovery+0.80 p=0.0093 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.80 p 0.0093; held-out -0.25 p 0.520)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    5eb8d932f2efca50c1c7a07d…
    follows 8f10d7f76097…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16960: SPECC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.64 (p 0.0045, n 18) vs +0.22 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPECC1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SPECC1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)