Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16959

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16958, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16959
    01 Nov 2026, 04:08 UTC

    SPECC1

    microglia, braak

    predictionSPECC1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1f3c361c36aed11f

    discovery+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.118 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.02, p 0.964)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8f10d7f76097d137050dc205…
    follows 196ae83fc399…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16959: SPECC1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.64 (p 0.0045, n 18) vs -0.28 in microglia. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPECC1 in microglia.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SPECC1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 1.4e-4)