Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16914

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.163). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16913, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16914
    01 Nov 2026, 03:11 UTC

    HP1BP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHP1BP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered68309ecbd84ffca5

    discovery+0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.163)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b9d5fe018d204578563fb82c…
    follows fee8454c2d1b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16914: HP1BP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HP1BP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.