Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16913

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.073). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16912, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16913
    01 Nov 2026, 03:08 UTC

    WNT10A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWNT10A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc498190e0680ab7c

    discovery-0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.073)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fee8454c2d1bdc314717417c…
    follows 3d1ca87fcf2f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16913: WNT10A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WNT10A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.