Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16844

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.288). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16843, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16844
    01 Nov 2026, 02:17 UTC

    IGSF10

    microglia, braak

    predictionIGSF10 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3ec4742fc7d30df7

    discovery-0.40 p=0.288 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.240 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.40, p 0.288)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6410a80e47663d14e56c7aea…
    follows dc360a976ebf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16844: IGSF10 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.22, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IGSF10 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.