Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16818

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.177). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16817, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16818
    01 Nov 2026, 01:44 UTC

    THBS2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTHBS2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered451de076df876b0d

    discovery-0.49 p=0.177 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.177)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    df3d385fd6467adc355477d7…
    follows d63c6576781c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16818: THBS2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for THBS2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.