Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16805

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16804, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16805
    01 Nov 2026, 01:28 UTC

    GFRA4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGFRA4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1f63ef23e0a684cc

    discovery-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    replication-0.44 p=0.232 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.414)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    591fb4649d9f0e54407130ba…
    follows a19d209a0168…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16805: GFRA4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.02. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.65 to -0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GFRA4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.