Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16780

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16779, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16780
    01 Nov 2026, 00:55 UTC

    PAMR1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPAMR1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd290f06632aa14fd

    discovery+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication-0.58 p=0.103 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b2537137cff96c475a69f8a4…
    follows 6ec7a20f8168…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16780: PAMR1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PAMR1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.