Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16579

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.108). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16578, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16579
    31 Oct 2026, 20:26 UTC

    PRR5

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPRR5 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredecfd0b96da925de9

    discovery-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.530 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.57, p 0.108)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5dcd0d7c05aec451d5c33fab…
    follows 2284100f1e89…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16579: PRR5 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.65 (p 0.0036, n 18) vs -0.32 in astrocytes. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRR5 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PRR5 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.75 p 0.0077 (needs p < 1.4e-4)