Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16560

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16559, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16560
    31 Oct 2026, 20:02 UTC

    DIXDC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDIXDC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc1a28a41a5595f79

    discovery+0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6b80c0c0f591645141d3888a…
    follows 35a1ea744b38…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16560: DIXDC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.26, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.65 (p 0.0037, n 18) vs +0.09 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DIXDC1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DIXDC1 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured