Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16494

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.646). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16493, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16494
    31 Oct 2026, 18:34 UTC

    GML

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGML in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered01aeaba1bca2d3c2

    discovery+0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.646)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    aa6154e09151c14377b6c7ef…
    follows 5ae885c6132e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16494: GML in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.683, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.21, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GML in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.