Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16440

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.146). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16439, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16440
    31 Oct 2026, 17:19 UTC

    ARL8B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARL8B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8c51588404e89c68

    discovery+0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.146)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b00db9e490b5db0a9735fa2…
    follows bd2e16d9890b…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16440: ARL8B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.59, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARL8B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.