Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16386

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.367). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16385, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16386
    31 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC

    BMF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBMF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd783c1c0ec73e3db

    discovery-0.34 p=0.367 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.367)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d97ab01948ae10d14d7516d4…
    follows c2d5d78df800…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16386: BMF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BMF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.