Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16327

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.735). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16326, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16327
    31 Oct 2026, 14:43 UTC

    EZH1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEZH1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8db9e0f65284c9bb

    discovery-0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.735)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    75e1ca1dc6838b3193bc34e7…
    follows f42a093b7a4c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16327: EZH1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.16, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EZH1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.