Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16326

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.023; held-out +0.28 p 0.470). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16325, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16326
    31 Oct 2026, 14:40 UTC

    ARHGAP5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARHGAP5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfbe8a7c231141006

    discovery+0.74 p=0.023 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.470 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.023; held-out +0.28 p 0.470)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    f42a093b7a4ca771f570392b…
    follows e9dd93280367…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16326: ARHGAP5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18), 95% CI +0.03 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.54 (p 0.020, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.43 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.49 (p 0.038, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.