Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16308

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.150). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16307, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16308
    31 Oct 2026, 14:15 UTC

    PLCL1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPLCL1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2ff6a2fda0b750e5

    discovery+0.52 p=0.150 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.150)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    576b1abee1676857e83a28d6…
    follows 46d274c3299a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16308: PLCL1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.460, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.306, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLCL1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.