Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16304

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.735). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16303, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16304
    31 Oct 2026, 14:10 UTC

    EFS

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEFS in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered854e3ce198ee868c

    discovery+0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.298 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.735)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5b11726668627c2fdd8c7d93…
    follows 8ceac271b443…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16304: EFS in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EFS in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.