Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16303

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.615). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16302, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16303
    31 Oct 2026, 14:10 UTC

    EFS

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionEFS in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd8de8cb08cccf135

    discovery-0.20 p=0.615 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.615)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ceac271b4437e6b3badcb36…
    follows e1d3bfec7a2f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16303: EFS in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EFS in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.