Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16299

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.449). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16298, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16299
    31 Oct 2026, 14:04 UTC

    SH3GL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSH3GL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfcc02b569ee162b3

    discovery-0.29 p=0.449 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.449)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2a930bf761e46c5f5495a7e0…
    follows da6830f87150…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16299: SH3GL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.17, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH3GL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.