Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16298

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.784). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16297, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16298
    31 Oct 2026, 14:04 UTC

    SH3GL3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSH3GL3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered12f003023d1c4107

    discovery-0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    replication+0.43 p=0.253 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.784)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    da6830f8715077e3842cf5b5…
    follows 2d6f67bfcc67…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16298: SH3GL3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.26, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH3GL3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.