Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16292

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16291, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16292
    31 Oct 2026, 13:56 UTC

    GBP3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGBP3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7745fa6861973561

    discovery-0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a5c8bff7a963071eb427e2b…
    follows 32ba646a1ac7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16292: GBP3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.15, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GBP3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.