Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16291

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.386). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16290, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16291
    31 Oct 2026, 13:53 UTC

    KCNIP4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNIP4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede6c05446120347b3

    discovery+0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.386)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    32ba646a1ac7625c26dfed29…
    follows c16799d63420…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16291: KCNIP4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNIP4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.