Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16274

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.618). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16273, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16274
    31 Oct 2026, 13:31 UTC

    EFR3B

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionEFR3B in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered24aa301c01013724

    discovery+0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.563 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.618)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ab124ff50f79a94e4e4869b4…
    follows e24f88c168eb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16274: EFR3B in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EFR3B in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.