Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16238

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16237, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16238
    31 Oct 2026, 12:44 UTC

    RAB33A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionRAB33A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3407e9ed6b908961

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.911 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    71f272cee34b6200685add48…
    follows 95739f28821d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16238: RAB33A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAB33A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.