Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16221

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16220, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16221
    31 Oct 2026, 12:22 UTC

    LPGAT1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionLPGAT1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5d693a2b54324f2c

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    40e16dbf6f7c026f2dc7e38c…
    follows 49fa0f54321d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16221: LPGAT1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LPGAT1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.