Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16167

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.785). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16166, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16167
    31 Oct 2026, 11:11 UTC

    CACHD1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCACHD1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredddfdd0762b387199

    discovery+0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.785)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4bfcd63a2a9571b7d0a17400…
    follows a33fae790e82…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16167: CACHD1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CACHD1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.