Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16060

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.324). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16059, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16060
    31 Oct 2026, 08:45 UTC

    ADCY8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADCY8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5c9cef467e4b7437

    discovery-0.37 p=0.324 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.324)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2199cf39cceb8a406abcb81c…
    follows 1a63b71ea55d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16060: ADCY8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18) vs -0.17 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADCY8 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ADCY8 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.07 p 0.790 (needs p < 1.4e-4)