Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16059

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16058, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16059
    31 Oct 2026, 08:45 UTC

    ADCY8

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionADCY8 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered544b6bf98a80be60

    discovery+0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    replication+0.75 p=0.019 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.56, p 0.116)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1a63b71ea55d9033f9677456…
    follows 643a9158654c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16059: ADCY8 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18), 95% CI +0.24 to +0.85. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18). holds up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.64 (p 0.0040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.59 to +0.73, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.64 (p 0.0044, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADCY8 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.