Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16042

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.212). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16041, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16042
    31 Oct 2026, 08:20 UTC

    RASSF8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRASSF8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf613819d1d7e9c3e

    discovery+0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    replication+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.46, p 0.212)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0abb8a131df492630211d708…
    follows e1b44abe0ae0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16042: RASSF8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18), 95% CI -0.07 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.35 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.41 (p 0.091, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RASSF8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.