Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16041

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.524). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16040, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16041
    31 Oct 2026, 08:20 UTC

    RASSF8

    microglia, braak

    predictionRASSF8 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3ac44e20627d3df4

    discovery-0.25 p=0.524 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.524)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e1b44abe0ae0d08eba86eb66…
    follows 8b78770326a7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16041: RASSF8 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.12, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RASSF8 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.