Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16032

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.857). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16031, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16032
    31 Oct 2026, 08:09 UTC

    STOX1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSTOX1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered038faf5d3d4fcbec

    discovery-0.07 p=0.857 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.857)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fd52deda8343da3af668cdcf…
    follows 46ceb31cd020…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16032: STOX1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STOX1 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.