Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15991

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.089). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15990, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15991
    31 Oct 2026, 07:14 UTC

    XKR4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionXKR4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda5c21bb1874cdf59

    discovery+0.60 p=0.089 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.146 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.60, p 0.089)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ce0d51ab03fd2a682ee7cd0f…
    follows 803e31a66df7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15991: XKR4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.054, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for XKR4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.