Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15990

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15989, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15990
    31 Oct 2026, 07:14 UTC

    XKR4

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionXKR4 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbedc252423fb74ce

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.929 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    803e31a66df78317c7c38202…
    follows eb84c17e1c6d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15990: XKR4 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.05, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for XKR4 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.