Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15920

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.663). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15919, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15920
    31 Oct 2026, 05:41 UTC

    ZNF385D

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF385D in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3697a1f54650fe40

    discovery+0.17 p=0.663 n=9

    replication+0.77 p=0.015 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.663)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    384ab7a10b21ee44fa944010…
    follows 92aa7dd7e5b0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15920: ZNF385D in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18), 95% CI -0.00 to +0.77. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.65, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF385D in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.