Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15887

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.911). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15886, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15887
    31 Oct 2026, 04:57 UTC

    STMN3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSTMN3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered26bdebf7045f94fa

    discovery+0.04 p=0.911 n=9

    replication+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.911)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    73c5f18f52dfedb97e18835e…
    follows 61eb6248ce85…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15887: STMN3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for STMN3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.