Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15886

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15885, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15886
    31 Oct 2026, 04:54 UTC

    BTBD8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBTBD8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf76b56464cd3f620

    discovery-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.83 p=0.0061 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    61eb6248ce851519e973f0da…
    follows 157c0c8b445e…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15886: BTBD8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18), 95% CI -0.25 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BTBD8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.